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    全球人口大變局:65歲以上人口首次超過5歲以下人口

    2019-2-21 23:50| 發布者: 天空之城| 查看: 672| 評論: 1|原作者: 華爾街見聞



    如今,不僅是發達國家,全球人口都在變得更“老”
    德意志銀行最近發表的研報指出,目前全球65歲以上的人口首次超過5歲以下人口。數據顯示,盡管過去20年,5歲以下人口的數量相對維持穩定,但是65歲以上人口卻在不斷增長。

    圖片來源:德意志銀行
    研究機構Yardeni Research主席Ed Yardeni指出,世界各地的生育率已降至世代更替水平以下,或者已經低于可支持人口增長的水平,“嬰兒荒”(baby bust)正在影響全球經濟增速。
    總和生育率(TFR)是反映每位婦女生育孩子數目的簡單術語,2.1被稱為世代更替水平(Replacement level),目前所有歐洲國家已經低于這一水平。聯合國預計,全球生育率將從2010-2015年的2.5 降至2025-2030年的2.4,并在2095-2100進一步降至2.0。
    圖片來源:聯合國(全球各地生育率不斷下滑)
    聯合國人口司2017年版《世界人口展望》中提及,如今全球人口增速大幅放緩,包括保加利亞、克羅地亞、拉脫維亞、立陶宛、波蘭、烏克蘭在內的一些國家,預計到2050年人口將減少超過15%。

    圖片來源:聯合國
    人口下滑與長期停滯理論
    出生率下滑和平均壽命的延長給全球帶來了更多的挑戰:政府在醫療看護和養老金方面的支出不斷增長,而工作和繳納稅收的人口卻穩步下滑。
    正如經濟學家警告的那樣,人口老齡化還預示著更廣泛的經濟趨勢。生育率下滑將導致人口老齡化,這將導致生產力下降、勞動力參與率下滑以及通脹停滯,甚至會對房屋所有權等宏觀經濟因素產生影響。


    全球人口困局
    ——美國
    2017年,美國的生育率已經跌至歷史新低。美國疾病控制與預防中心(CDC)統計數據顯示,2017年美國嬰兒出生數量較2016年下降2%,15至44歲的育齡婦女中,每1000人生育60.2,創下有美國有記錄以來新低;生育率在1.76,為該國1978年以來最低水平。
    經濟學家擔心,不斷下滑的新生兒數量將影響未來勞動力,甚至稱這種影響為“人口定時炸彈”。咨詢公司Oxford Economics經濟學家Kathy Bostjancic接受采訪時稱,出生率下滑已經在過去十年對美國經濟產生了影響,相當于拖累美國長期增長率0.7%。

    ——西班牙、意大利、保加利亞
    1989-2014年西班牙都是全球平均生育率最低的國家。盡管在2012年至2015年經歷下滑后,西班牙人口在2017年迎來連續第二年增長,不過人口的增加主要來自移民。
    西班牙國家統計局數據顯示,2017年西班牙注冊人口凈減少31,245人,其中出生人數下滑4.5%,死亡人數增長3.2%,這一數據并未包括移民帶來的人口改變,同時,該國的死亡人數超過出生人數已經持續數年,2017年死亡人數超過出生人數更是創下1941年以來最快。
    意大利也飽受出生率過低的困擾,2017年意大利出生人數較2016年減少2%,下滑至46.4萬人的歷史新低。當地媒體《The Local》報道,許多意大利人想要生育2個及以上孩子,然而找工作難成為了阻礙他們這么做的原因。
    根據Quartz統計,保加利亞人口減少的速度可能是全球最快的國家,預計到2050年其人口將降至540萬人,2017年為700萬。一方面是低生育率,另一方面是人口外流的危機,許多保加利亞人正在尋求到國外找工作。

    ——日本、韓國
    正在經受老齡化的日本,正遭受有史以來最嚴重的自然人口減少。去年日本人口問題出現了“出生人口創新低、死亡人口創新高”的局面。
    日本厚生勞動省預計,2018年全日本新生嬰兒數量將降至92.1萬名,連續第三年預估新生兒數量不足100萬名;死亡人數達到136.9萬人,創出二戰后最高水平;死亡人數減去出生人口的自然人口減少量達到44.8萬人,是有史以來的最高記錄。
    隨著人口減少和年輕人前往都市,日本鄉村出現了房子比人多的局面,甚至出現了“免費送房”的現象。
    另一個鄰國韓國的生育率也正處于極低水平。朝鮮日報去年的一項調查顯示,韓國育齡婦女生育孩子的平均數量已經降至0.96,為歷史上首次低于1。為了扭轉這一趨勢,韓國政府出臺各項措施,比如2006至2018年支出153萬億韓元,通過給予5歲以下兒童免費照料等措施來鼓勵生育。

    ——俄羅斯、印度
    俄羅斯聯邦統計局今年1月公布的初步數據顯示,截至2019年1月1日,俄羅斯人口為1.46794億,較上一年減少86000人。這是俄羅斯人口十年來首次下滑。
    為了應對人口減少和低生育率,俄羅斯也采取行動。俄羅斯總統普京在昨日發表國情咨文時表示,俄羅斯計劃讓人口在2023至2024年度重新恢復自然增長,并承諾將在稅收、抵押貸款和現金方面支持生育更多孩子的俄羅斯家庭。
    印度人口老齡化的速度比預想的要快許多。聯合國人口基金2017年的一份報告顯示,到2050年印度60歲以上人口的占比將接近20%,而2015年這一比例僅為8%。2000年到2050年間,預計印度總體人口將增長56%,其中60歲以上人口將增長326%。
    (來源:華爾街見聞;記者:方凌)
    (編輯:葉映橙,實習生,李曉晴)

    發表評論

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    引用 蓮兒 2019-2-28 10:36
    好資訊也!人口專題正好用上!感謝道長分享!學無涯,教也無涯。。。

    查看全部評論(1)

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